Tempo at Sun: Sun favored by 2.5 in a tighter matchup than the spread suggests

Game outlook

The Connecticut Sun enter as 2.5-point favorites at home against the Toronto Tempo on Thursday, September 24 at Mohegan Sun Arena. Neither the season record nor recent form reaches that spread on its own. The open question is whether the Sun of the last 10 games (-15.5 a game) or of the full season (-9.7) is the better guide.

Availability

The observed injury report lists five Tempo players. Out long-term: Maria Conde (Out; the observed estimated return date May 1, 2027; feed updated Sep 24), Temi Fagbenle (Out; the observed estimated return date May 1, 2027; feed updated Sep 23), Marina Mabrey (Out, out for the season; feed updated Sep 16), Aneesah Morrow (Out, out for the season; feed updated Aug 23) and Brittney Sykes (Out, out for the season; feed updated Aug 23).

Maria Conde appeared in two of the Tempo’s last five games, so the rotation in that window already reflects her absence.

The Tempo have already played one game of their last five without Temi Fagbenle (September 22 against the Sky). Maria Conde, who does not usually start, started that game and played 14 minutes, against 22 a game in the other four games of the window. That is box-score observation, not a published lineup.

The observed injury report lists four Sun players. Out long-term: Olivia Nelson-Ododa (Out; the observed estimated return date May 1, 2027; feed updated Sep 23), Saniya Rivers (Out; the observed estimated return date May 1, 2027; feed updated Sep 23), Brittney Griner (Out; the observed estimated return date May 1, 2027; feed updated Sep 23) and Kennedy Burke (Out, out for the season; feed updated Sep 14).

Olivia Nelson-Ododa appeared in one of the Sun’s last five games, so the rotation in that window already reflects her absence.

The Sun have already played one game of their last five without Saniya Rivers (September 22 against the Mystics). Raegan Beers, who does not usually start, started that game and played 24 minutes, against 18.3 a game in the other four games of the window. That is box-score observation, not a published lineup.

How they match up

Over the full season the Tempo (11-32) score 85.8 points a game and allow 94.3, a -8.5 differential; the Sun (10-33) score 78.5 and allow 88.2, -9.7. The Tempo are 4-17 on the road; the Sun are 7-14 at home.

Pace is close — an estimated 82.4 possessions a game for the Tempo, 82.3 for the Sun — so the scoring gap is efficiency, not pace: the Tempo score about 104.1 points per 100 possessions, the Sun 95.4 (points per game divided by estimated possessions).

The Tempo shoot 43.7% and hold opponents to 47.8%; the Sun shoot 42.3% and allow 46.8%. On the glass the Tempo are -2.6 a game and the Sun -1.3 a game (season team stats).

Recent form narrows that picture: the Tempo are 1-9 over their last 10 with a -15.5 average margin, the Sun 2-8 at -15.5. The Tempo’s worst result in that stretch was a 106–69 loss at home to the Liberty on September 20. The Sun’s was 103–59 at the Dream on September 17.

Rest does not separate them: the Tempo come in on 1 days of rest after their last game on September 22, the Sun on 1 days after September 22 (PropSports schedule, whole days between tips).

Season series: TOR leads series 2-0: the Tempo won 101–97 in Connecticut on June 19; the Tempo won 106–102 at home on June 10; the Sun won 83–78 in Toronto on April 29.

The line

The latest market snapshot (Sep 24 at 6:00 PM ET, 11 books) has the Sun favored by 2.5, with a total of 168.5. The best spread prices in that capture are Sun -106 at FanDuel and Tempo -108 at DraftKings. Removing the bookmaker margin, the moneylines work out to a 56.4% consensus probability for the Sun across 11 books.

Across three stored captures since Sep 24, the consensus home spread moved from -2 to -2.5 and the total moved from 167.5 to 168.5.

Before tip

Player props enter the board inside 36 hours of tip, which is usually where a minutes change becomes visible first.

Watch the next snapshots at 8:00 a.m., 1:00 p.m. and 6:00 p.m. ET for movement from Sun −2.5 and the 168.5 total.