Aces at Mercury: Aces favored by 9.5 as recent form improves

Game outlook

The Las Vegas Aces enter as 9.5-point favorites on the road against the Phoenix Mercury on Thursday, September 24 at Mortgage Matchup Center. Recent form supports that spread more comfortably than the season record does. The open question is whether the Aces of the last 10 games (+11.8 a game) or of the full season (+5.4) is the better guide.

Availability

The observed injury report lists two Aces players. Out long-term: NaLyssa Smith (Out; the observed estimated return date May 1, 2027; feed updated Aug 27). Listed with a provider estimated return date after this game: Dana Evans (Out; the observed estimated return date September 27; feed updated Sep 24).

NaLyssa Smith appeared in one of the Aces’ last five games, so the rotation in that window already reflects her absence.

The Aces have already played one game of their last five without Dana Evans (August 23 against the Tempo). The largest minutes increase in that game was Mai Yamamoto’s: 22, against 17.3 a game in the other four. That is box-score observation, not a published lineup.

The observed injury report lists three Mercury players. Out long-term: Kara Dunn (Out; the observed estimated return date May 1, 2027; feed updated Sep 24), Kelsey Plum (Out, out for the season; feed updated Aug 31) and Jovana Nogic (Out, out for the season; feed updated Jun 27).

How they match up

Over the full season the Aces (30-13) score 91.3 points a game and allow 85.9, a +5.4 differential; the Mercury (16-27) score 84.4 and allow 87.3, -2.9. The Aces are 15-6 on the road; the Mercury are 7-14 at home.

Pace is close — an estimated 81.7 possessions a game for the Mercury, 81.6 for the Aces — so the scoring gap is efficiency, not pace: the Aces score about 111.9 points per 100 possessions, the Mercury 103.3 (points per game divided by estimated possessions).

The Aces shoot 48.4% and hold opponents to 44.4%; the Mercury shoot 44.5% and allow 46.1%. On the glass the Aces are even and the Mercury -2.4 a game (season team stats).

Recent form widens that picture: the Aces are 8-2 over their last 10 with a +11.8 average margin, the Mercury 4-6 at -1.2. The Aces’ worst result in that stretch was a 97–82 loss at home to the Dream on August 18. The Mercury’s was 95–75 at the Mystics on August 9.

Rest does not separate them: the Aces come in on 1 days of rest after their last game on September 22, the Mercury on 2 days after September 21 (PropSports schedule, whole days between tips).

Season series: LV leads series 2-1: the Aces won 106–58 at home on July 11; the Aces won 86–76 in Phoenix on June 17; the Mercury won 99–66 in Las Vegas on May 9.

The line

The latest market snapshot (Sep 24 at 6:00 PM ET, 11 books) has the Aces favored by 9.5, with a total of 174.5. The best spread prices in that capture are Mercury -105 at Fanatics and Aces -108 at LowVig. Removing the bookmaker margin, the moneylines work out to a 78.8% consensus probability for the Aces across 11 books.

Across three stored captures since Sep 24, the consensus home spread moved from +10 to +9.5 and the total moved from 175.5 to 174.5.

That snapshot came before the observed latest availability update for Kara Dunn (Sep 24, 9:38 PM ET), so the line may not reflect the newest status.

Before tip

The starting lineup will show who replaces NaLyssa Smith; the first full game without her will show how the minutes actually move.

Player props are already posted for 4 players, so any minutes adjustment should start showing there.

Watch the next snapshots at 8:00 a.m., 1:00 p.m. and 6:00 p.m. ET for movement from Aces −9.5 and the 174.5 total.