The Dream are 10-0 against the spread in their last 10: the lines have undersold them by 10.4 a game

The run

Over their last 10 games with a posted line, the Atlanta Dream went 10-0 against the spread. On average they were 5-point favorites and finished at +15.4 — 10.4 points a game better than the spread. Five of the 10 covers came by 10 or more.

The numbers

Does it persist across the window? The five older games produced five covers and the five most recent five; the average spread was -7.1 on the older games and -2.9 on the recent ones.

For the record, totals in the same games went 6-4.

The next line

The market now: PropBetEdge’s capture of Oct 10 (10 books, PropSports market capture) has the Dream at +2.5 for ATL at GS on Oct 17.

Across three stored captures since Oct 10, the consensus home spread has held at -2.5.

Next matchup

The Atlanta Dream are 30-14, 9-1 over their last 10, scoring 91.3 points a game and allowing 84.5 on the season.

Next up is a road game against the Golden State Valkyries on Saturday, October 17; the Valkyries are 32-12 and score 82.2 while allowing 75.1.

What could break the trend

A reason to be careful with the run: 10 games against one sportsbook’s spreads is a small sample, and a market that has already adjusted leaves nothing of the run in the next spread.

Next up

Next up is ATL at GS on Saturday, October 17. It is the first chance to see whether the run holds against the current multi-book line.