A'ja Wilson
Photo: Lorie Shaull from St Paul, United States · CC BY-SA 2.0 (cropped) · Wikimedia CommonsPictured: A'ja Wilson
Performances

The Aces beat the Fever 94–83 in Game 3, advance to the WNBA semifinals

The Aces came back from 8 down behind A'ja Wilson’s 36 points to win the first-round series 2–1; the No. 2 Valkyries are next.

Game story

A'ja Wilson led the Aces with 36 points and 10 rebounds on 11-of-18 shooting (2-of-3 from three), 12-of-15 at the line in 37 minutes as the Las Vegas Aces beat the Indiana Fever 94–83 on Thursday, October 1. The win closes out the first round series 2–1 and sends the Aces to the WNBA semifinals against the Valkyries; the Fever’s season is over.

Game Highlights

Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces | FULL GAME HIGHLIGHTS | October 1, 2026

Official video · WNBA on YouTube · plays in YouTube’s privacy-enhanced mode when you press play · Watch on YouTube ↗

Who stood out

A'ja Wilson: 36 points and 10 rebounds on 11-of-18 shooting (2-of-3 from three), 12-of-15 at the line in 37 minutes, a +12 in her minutes. By the observed shot locations, 3-of-8 from midrange, 4-of-4 in the paint outside the restricted area and 2-of-3 from above the break. She entered averaging 25.8 points this season; this finish was 10.2 above that mark. She had averaged 25.9 over her previous 10, putting this game 10.1 above that recent pace.

A'ja Wilson: Game 3 against her baselines

This game · her last 10 before it · her regular season entering it

Baselines are her regular-season games before this one (PropSports game log). Playoff games are never mixed into them.

PropSports box score (game 401918022) and PropSports game log values as of Oct 1, 2026 payload 2f39adc9a61985c7

Show the numbers in this figure
Frozen values shown in this figure
Game 3 · 1 gameLast 10 · 10 GSeason · 42 G
Points3625.925.8
Rebounds1089.2
Assists13.63.2
Minutes3731.631.6

A'ja Wilson's WinBA Score

No. 2 on the board of Oct 2

86.3WinBA Score
Production percentile 100.0

45% of the score

Win rate 73.8%

25% of the score

Winning-output share 75.0%

20% of the score

Court share 79.0%

10% of the score

WinBA measures the regular season. This board is dated Oct 2 and does not include any playoff game.

PropBetEdge WinBA Score board (winba/1.0.1) values as of Oct 1, 2026 payload 85e3786b72be9d1d

Show the numbers in this figure
Frozen component values plotted in this figure
ComponentValueWeight
Production percentile 100.0 45%
Win rate 73.8% 25%
Winning-output share 75.0% 20%
Court share 79.0% 10%

How it happened

The second quarter was the swing — the Aces won it 23–17 — and they led 54–48 at halftime. The game had seven lead changes; the Aces’ largest lead was 12.

The Aces won it with their starters: the Fever’s bench outscored theirs, 19–6. For the Fever, Kelsey Mitchell scored 23 (7-of-23) and Aliyah Boston 19 (8-of-16).

The Aces made 29-64 from the field (45%) and 8-20 from three; the Fever 30-78 (38%). Turnovers ran 10–10, and points off turnovers 14–14. Rebounds went 34–38, points in the paint 22–36.

Scoring by quarter

Aces 94, Fever 83 · Game 3

Margin = Aces points minus Fever points in each period. The largest margin was the Q2 (+6).

PropSports box score and linescore (game 401918022) values as of Oct 1, 2026 payload 2ed4fab2538232f6

Show the numbers in this figure
Frozen values plotted in this figure (points)
AcesFeverMargin
Q131310
Q22317+6
Q31617-1
Q42418+6

Where the game separated

The 5 team stats with the widest gaps

Selected by the size of each difference relative to a typical game-to-game gap for that stat. Descriptive, not a causal breakdown of the margin.

PropSports box score and linescore (game 401918022) values as of Oct 1, 2026 payload e4fa53621e8b0263

Show the numbers in this figure
Frozen values shown in this figure
AcesFever
Offensive rebounds29
Points in the paint2236
Bench points619
3-point %40%28%
Field goal %45%38%

What it means

The Aces came into the series as the No. 3 seed and the Fever as the No. 6; the higher seed finished the job.

This did not come against one of the league’s softest defenses: the Fever allow 90.4 points a game (standings as of Oct 2), 5th-most of 15.

Next for the Aces: the No. 2 Golden State Valkyries in the best-of-five semifinals, opening on the road as the No. 3 seed. Game 1 is at Chase Center; the tip time has not been set.

First Round series

Aces win the series 2–1

Each final game of the best-of-3 series through this one, from the Aces side; the number is the final margin.

PropBetEdge playoff bracket (final scores) values as of Oct 1, 2026 payload fae9c15b734240ac

Show the numbers in this figure
Game-by-game results shown in this figure
TeamGameResultValue
AcesGame 1 vs IND (102–85)W+17
AcesGame 2 at IND (99–89)L-10
AcesGame 3 vs IND (94–83)W+11
PropBetEdge Intelligence

Betting relevance

On the spread: DraftKings’ line, had the Aces favored by 4.5; the 11-point margin put the Aces on the right side of the spread.

The 177 combined points went under the 181.5 total.

A'ja Wilson (36 points against 25.8 entering the game and 25.9 over her previous 10) is the line the next prop market has to price.

Markets touched: Spread · Total · Moneyline

Market evidence

Market reference: DraftKings (a single sportsbook). PropBetEdge also holds a pre-tip capture from Oct 1.

SpreadLV -4.5-110 FanDuel
Total181O -110 LowVig
MoneylineIND +165LV -189
Best prices across 10 books · propsports.proptechusa.ai · last pre-tip capture 11d ago · STALE

Unknowns

How the market prices both teams on the next slate beyond the stored captures.

Whether the next posted prop lines adjust to these performances.

Evidence & methodology4 cited records · how this story was built

Records cited

  1. PropSports box score + play-by-play + shot locations · source ↗
  2. PropSports team schedules (records after the game, scoring entering it) · source ↗
  3. PropSports standings (standings as of Oct 2) · source ↗
  4. DraftKings line

How this story was built

Photo: Lorie Shaull from St Paul, United States · CC BY-SA 2.0 (cropped)Pictured: A'ja Wilson.

Generated by PropBetEdge’s deterministic newsroom (wnba-articles/1.7.0 · Full story, wnba-depth/1.1.0) and checked by the publication gate before release; betting relevance: actionable.