The Las Vegas Aces beat the Toronto Tempo, 93–73

The read

The Las Vegas Aces beat the Toronto Tempo 93–73 on Friday, August 28. Against DraftKings’ line, relayed by ESPN, the Aces were favored by 16.5; they covered by 3.5, and the game went under the 175.5 total by 9.5. The question for the next slate is how much of that margin repeats.

How it happened

The first quarter was the swing — the Aces won it 27–17 — and they led 56–39 at halftime. The game had one lead change; the Aces’ largest lead was 26.

The Aces’ bench outscored the Tempo’s, 25–22.

The Aces made 32-75 from the field (43%) and 10-33 from three; the Tempo 27-67 (40%). Turnovers ran 7–17, and points off turnovers 2–18 in the Tempo’s favor — the margin came from shooting, not possession control. Rebounds went 38–37, points in the paint 36–28.

The counter-case

The case against reading it forward: the Aces gave up more points off turnovers than they scored, 18–2. One game is a sample of one.

What matters next

After the result the Aces were 27-14 and the Tempo 11-28 (team schedules through August 28). The Aces’ 93 was 2.6 above the 90.4 a game they averaged entering it.

Next: LV at SEA on Sep 17, where the market consensus has the Aces favored by 8.5 with a total of 173.5 (PropBetEdge capture, Sep 11, 9 books) — and the Storm allow 88.2 a game, 6th-most of 15; IND at TOR on Sep 18, where the market consensus has the Fever favored over the Tempo by 11.5 with a total of 189.5 (PropBetEdge capture, Sep 11, 8 books). Prop lines for either team are captured only inside 36 hours of tip, and they are the market that has to digest this result.