The Mercury are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10: the lines have oversold them by 1.6 a game

The read

Over their last 10 completed games with a line in the source record, the Phoenix Mercury went 3-7 against the spread. On average they were 0.7-point underdogs and finished at -2.3 — 1.6 points a game worse than the spread. One of the 10 misses came by 10 or more.

The evidence

Has the spread caught up? The average spread on the five older games was +0.5; on the five most recent it was +0.9. The market consensus for their next game, PHX at POR on Sep 17, has them at -1.5 (PropBetEdge capture, Sep 12, 9 books).

Game by game: Aug 29 vs TOR 101–69 (-7.5, covered); Aug 27 vs WSH 73–80 (+5.5, failed to cover); Aug 25 vs WSH 84–94 (+2.5, failed to cover); Aug 22 vs ATL 89–99 (+8.5, failed to cover); Aug 16 vs POR 85–88 (-4.5, failed to cover); Aug 11 at LA 94–87 (+1.5, covered); Aug 9 at WSH 75–95 (+1.5, failed to cover); Aug 7 at CON 72–75 (-5.5, failed to cover); Aug 5 at ATL 82–96 (+6.5, failed to cover); Aug 3 at CHI 106–101 (-1.5, covered).

For the record, totals in the same games went 5-5.

The counter-case

The case against the run: 10 games against one sportsbook’s spreads is a small sample, and a market that has already adjusted leaves nothing of the run in the next spread.